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許維鴻農村土地流轉勿念快速升值
2020-01-11 18:02  www.ussbeatty.com

随着新《中华人民共和国土地管理法》的施行,全国范围内农村集体土地自2020年开始可以直接入市买卖,开启了中国经济城乡统筹发展、进一步打破城乡二元结构的供给侧改革新篇章。政商两界、国内外媒体纷纷聚焦新政策带来的改革红利和问题风向。

With the implementation of the new Land Administration Law of the People's Republic of China, rural collective land in the country can be bought and sold directly into the market since 2020, opening a new chapter in the supply-side reform of the dual structure of urban and rural areas. The political, business and domestic and foreign media have focused on the reform dividend and problems brought about by the new policy.

首先需要指出的是,集体土地可流转的前提,依然是保障基本农田面积和农民利益,确保“三农”战略的民生底线。很多网上不负责任的言论,断章取义地解读新政,并没有全面关注新土地法对于相关问题的很多细则,例如对“永久基本农田”的定义和司法解释,以及对农民利益在集体经济中的立法程序保障,都是经过几年改革试点的经验和教训总结。说白了,新土地法所针对的,是中国经济在城镇化和工业化新阶段面临的发展机遇和存量问题,绝不会、也完全没必要打破“三农”的民生底线。

First of all, it should be pointed out that the premise that collective land can be transferred is still to protect the basic farmland area and the interests of farmers, and to ensure the bottom line of the people's livelihood of the \"three rural\" strategy. Many irresponsible remarks on the Internet, out of context, read the new deal, and did not pay full attention to many of the new land law's detailed rules on related issues, such as the definition and judicial interpretation of \"permanent basic farmland \", and the legislative procedures for the interests of farmers in the collective economy, are a summary of experience and lessons learned from several years of pilot reform. To put it bluntly, the new land law is aimed at the development opportunities and stock problems that China's economy is facing in the new stage of urbanization and industrialization, and will never, nor will it be necessary to break the bottom line of the people's livelihood.

以网上盛传、也被外国媒体关注的浙江某县的实际情况为例,集体土地的“出让、出租、抵押、挂牌交易、再次转让”合法化,激发了县乡两级释放存量土地资产价值的积极性;而且该县地处“大杭州经济圈”,土地增值预期很高。但是,当农村集体真“投资、操盘”工业园的时候,才发现市场开发并非预期那样简单,收益落差引发了集体中土地所有者——农民的疑惑甚至抱怨,村上卖土地的钱哪去了?

Taking the actual situation of a county in Zhejiang province, which has been widely spread on the Internet and paid close attention to by foreign media as an example, the legalization of the "transfer, lease, mortgage, listing transaction and retransfer" of collective land has stimulated the enthusiasm of the county and township level to release the value of land assets in stock. However, when the rural collective really "investment, trading "industrial park, only to find that market development is not as simple as expected, the income gap caused the collective land owners – farmers doubt or even complain, where is the money Murakami sold land?

浙江的案例代表了中国经济新常态下的典型现象,一方面是房地产泡沫虽然正在被有效化解,但是土地价值非理性上涨的预期依然还深植于很多人脑中;另一方面,农村集体土地经营需要专业的人才和企业,简单粗犷的开发模式早就过时了。即便是东南沿海、即便是地市一级的工业园区,招商引资的模式和服务都必须升级,更何况县乡基层的工业园区?

Zhejiang's case represents a typical phenomenon under the new normal state of china's economy. On the one hand, while the real estate bubble is being effectively defused, the expectation of irrational rise in land value is still in the minds of many; on the other hand, the rural collective land management needs professionals and enterprises, and the simple and rugged development model has long been out of date. Even industrial parks along the southeast coast, even at the prefectural level, must be upgraded to attract investment, not to mention industrial parks at the grass-roots level.

那么,东南沿海经济活跃地区的集体土地经营都面临挑战,中西部地区是否就更加困难呢?实际情况并非如此,恰恰是随着大量东南沿海技术、管理、人才逐渐“回流”中西部,很多投资和消费“洼地”的县域经济发展才迎来机遇。如果仔细研究各大电商平台2019年的零售数据,其地域分布显示,北上广深等一线城市的增长已经趋缓,而广大中西部县乡两级的增速持续高企。

So, the southeastern coastal areas are facing the challenge of collective land management, the central and western regions are more difficult? The actual situation is not so, it is precisely with a large number of southeast coastal technology, management, talent gradually \"back to the\" central and western \", many investment and consumption \"depression\" county economic development to usher in the opportunity. If you look carefully at the retail data of the major e-commerce platforms in 2019, their geographical distribution shows that growth in first-tier cities such as the north has slowed, while growth at the county and township levels in the wider Midwest has continued to be high.

可见,中国经济的消费升级潜力伴随着城乡一体化发展,无疑是21世纪第三个十年投资最具潜力的领域。乡村振兴战略也是基于此,依托现代农业和大康养产业的立体布局,集体土地可流转是基本的法律保障。以笔者近期调研发现,作为“打卡式”旅游的升级版,休闲式旅游的很多投资,就受限于集体土地产权问题,让很多长期投资无法下乡;而过去几年全国各地的很多旅游综合体、房车营地项目,由于缺少土地产权规范,甚至触碰到了永久基本农田的红线,更不要说通过资本市场融资发展了。

It can be seen that the potential of consumption upgrading in China's economy is accompanied by the development of urban and rural integration, which is undoubtedly the most potential area for investment in the third decade of the 21st century. Rural revitalization strategy is also based on this, relying on the three-dimensional layout of modern agriculture and health care industry, collective land circulation is the basic legal guarantee. The author's recent research found that as an upgraded version of \"card-type\" tourism, many investment in leisure tourism is limited by collective land property rights, so many long-term investment cannot go to the countryside; and in the past few years, many tourism complex, RV camp projects around the country, because of the lack of land property rights norms, even touched the red line of permanent basic farmland, let alone through the capital market financing development.

农业和旅游都是重资产、重资本的产业,长期发展离不开资本市场的现代金融服务。还是以房车营地项目为例,如果缺乏长期的资金和资本规划,点状的产业布局难以实现持续盈利。目前能盈利的少数项目还都是围绕长江三角洲的小范围特殊人群,虽然志存高远,但真要辐射中西部确实需要在土地问题上形成良性机制。

Agriculture and tourism are both asset-oriented and capital-oriented industries, and long-term development cannot be separated from modern financial services in capital markets. Take the RV camp project as an example. Without long-term capital and capital planning, the point-shaped industrial layout is hard to achieve sustained profitability. A few of the most profitable projects now revolve around a small group of special people in the yangtze delta. Although ambitious, radiating the central and western regions really needs to form a benign mechanism on land.

因此,市场期待今年各省能对新土地法实施形成因地制宜的细则办法。特别是各具特色的县域经济,包括最拥有绿水青山的贫困县,随着逐渐摘掉贫困县的帽子,通过集体土地不动产登记、确权流转交易,激发基层经济的新活力。毕竟,我国早就形成“国家对不动产施行统一登记”的制度,对于包括集体所有权在内的权利人进行平等确权,便于吸引外部投资整合资源。

Therefore, the market expects that this year the provinces will be able to implement new land laws in accordance with local rules. In particular, the county economy with its own characteristics, including the poor counties with the most green water and green mountains, with the gradual removal of the hat of the poor counties, through the collective land real estate registration, the right to transfer transactions to stimulate the new vitality of the grass-roots economy. After all, our country has long formed the system of \"unified registration of real estate by the state \", which makes equal right to the right holders, including collective ownership, so as to attract external investment to integrate resources.

总之,县域经济有效利用新政策,2020年开始已经不存在法律和产权登记的制度障碍。各级政府除了要彻底摒弃土地“野蛮开发、快速升值”的幻想,还要积极跟踪所在省级政府的细则新规,积极引进有实力的农业、康养、旅游等行业的长期投资者经营土地。技术上,县域经济可以充分利用县里的投融资平台,从一开始就把集体土地作为市场化资产客观看待,具备金融条件的还可以协助集体经济进行有效管理,化解城乡一体化的土地壁垒,振兴广大乡村。(作者是中证焦桐首席经济学家、盘古智库学术委员)

In a word, the county economy effectively utilizes the new policy, and there are no institutional obstacles to the registration of laws and property rights since 2020. In addition to abandoning the illusion of \"savage development and rapid appreciation\" of land, governments at all levels should actively follow the new rules and regulations of their provincial governments and actively introduce long-term investors in powerful industries such as agriculture, health care and tourism to manage land. Technically, the county economy can make full use of the county's investment and financing platform, from the beginning of the collective land as a market-oriented asset objective view, with financial conditions can also help the collective economy to effectively manage, resolve the land barriers to urban and rural integration, revitalizing the vast number of villages. (The author is chief economist of China Stock Exchange and academic member of Pangu think tank)